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Posted October 9, 2025 at 12:50 pm
Tomorrow’s unemployment rate release for Canada is expected to rise to 7.2% from 7.1%, but the historical tendencies of this indicator alongside liquidity availability at the lower and upper tails present a short strangle kind of forecast contract trade. Indeed, the figure has rarely risen by 0.4% or more in one month, and that’s what would be required for “Team No” to lose at 7.4%. Meanwhile, a drop of 0.3% or lower is also a rare event, so “Team Yes” at 6.8% and below carry attractive risk-reward profiles, in my opinion. The “No” at 7.4% and the “Yeses” at 6.4%, 6.6% and 6.8% are all costing either $0.97 or $0.98.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of October 9, 2025. Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred “Yes” and “No” answers throughout different levels.
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